We have hit the peak time of year for gambling. The NFL has returned, to go along with college football. Betting on the NFL is in my humble opinion much easier than college football. These teams are generally the same year after year. There are so many storylines coming into the season, so without any more side chatter, let’s get into the card for week one.
My week 1 lock is a teaser between the 49ers and the Rams. Teasers in the NFL are -120 so there is some extra juice that needs to be laid, but I love this play. Both teams are 7.5 point favorites, so the teaser brings them down to -1. The 49ers travel to Detroit to take on the worst team in the NFC, the Lions. The Niners do indeed have questions at the QB position, but regardless of who starts, points will be scored, and the defense is still amazing. Should be an easy win for the Niners. The Rams play at home against the Bears. Much like SF, the Rams have an amazing defense. Matt Stafford should give the offense a needed boost, and the Bears are so dumb to be starting Andy Dalton.
My other week 1 teaser is between the Bucs and Bills. The Bucs and Tom Brady open up the season against Dallas. There is no reason to believe the Bucs should not be better this year. Tom Brady has another year to get the timing and chemistry down with this team, and they return all 22 starters. Dallas will not be horrible this year, but their defense will be, so I love teasing the champs down to -2. The Bills open up as a 6 point favorite at home against the Steelers. The Bills are going to challenge the Chiefs for the AFC this year, and with Bills Mafia back at a home game, they will be buzzing. The Steelers are going to be interesting all season, but I do not see them getting this win in week 1.
Moving into the straight bets for the weekend, my favorite play comes in the form of a revenger game. Sam Darnold and the new look Carolina Panthers are a 5 point favorite at home against the New York Jets. I think the Panthers are a team to keep an eye on all season. I believe Darnold will thrive in this new setting, and they could be a playoff contender. On the other hand, I do not see the Jets getting much better. I am not sold on Zach Willson. The Jets will be the Jets, maybe win 5 games all year, but this is not one of them.
Speaking of young QB’s I will be taking Trevor Lawrence in his NFL debut. The Jags are a small 3 point favorite at Houston. I do not have anything good to say about the Texans. The defense is horrid, the offense is not good, and with the Deshaun Watson news above the team, I do not see it working out. On the flip, I love what Jacksonville has to offer. A young offense with some good weapons, Urban Myer looking to prove himself in the NFL, and an ok enough defense. The Jags should win this division game.
Another young QB I am riding in week 1 is Mac Jones. As a Pats fan, I am fired up for Mac. I loved him in college, saying that he was the 2nd best QB in this draft. For him to land with the Pats organization is a match made in heaven. Bill Belichick will be coaching with a chip on his shoulder all year, and as a 3 point favorite at home against the Dolphins, I expect the Pats to roll. I do not believe in Tua. I think the Dolphins need to move him and get the max they can. Go Pats.
My last play week is the Seattle Seahawks as a 2 point favorite against the Colts. Russ is a winner, and this offense is amazing. The defense should be good enough to get the job done. For Indy, I do not think Carson
49ers -1.5, Rams -1.5
Bucs -2, Bills EV
Positive Vibes Only