The Kansas City Chiefs return to Arrowhead with a 10-1 record following a wild three-point win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and this week they get to face the 4-7 Denver Broncos on Sunday Night Football. The Broncos are coming off a 31-3 loss to Taysom Hill’s New Orleans Saints, where they started Kendall Hinton, a practice squad wide receiver who played quarterback at Wake Forest, and he was the first quarterback since Ryan Leaf in 1998 to have more interceptions than completed passes in a game.

This week, the Broncos will see quarterback Drew Lock return to the lineup, but what else do you need to know ahead of Sunday’s primetime matchup?

Stat to Know: The Broncos defense has allowed 28+ points in five of their last six games after not allowing 26+ points in any of their first five games.
Broncos 2020 Schedule Prior to Week 13

The Broncos defense was one of the best in the NFL heading into the first Chiefs matchup, allowing only 100 points over the first five games with zero games of 26+ points allowed. (The Broncos took safeties vs. the Steelers and Buccaneers and threw a pick-six with a failed two-point conversion vs. the Jets.) Unfortunately for Denver, it has gone south for them in recent weeks.
NFL Defense Chart 2020 Week 7-12 10-90 WP
EPA = Expected Points Added

They allowed 29 points against the Chiefs offense (plus a Sorensen pick-six and Pringle kickoff return touchdown to make it 43), 30 against the Chargers, 34 against the Falcons, 37 against the Raiders and 31 against the Saints. In this span, they have also been 17th in EPA allowed per play on defense (0.054), including 31st in EPA per rush (0.039) and 14th in EPA per dropback (0.066).

Matchup to Watch: Tyreek Hill vs. Michael Ojemudia

Tyreek Hill didn’t start the season quite as well as I had hoped, but over the last few games, Hill has been absolutely dominant, racking up a mind-blowing 582 yards and eight touchdowns in the last four games, including 95+ yards in all four games and multiple touchdowns in three of those games.

On the other hand, we could have had the always-underrated Bryce Callahan. Callahan joined the Broncos prior to the 2019 season after a couple of great seasons with the Chicago Bears, but he was unable to play for the entire season after his foot never fully healed from surgery after an injury in late 2018. In 2020, he hasn’t disappointed. For Pro Football Focus (PFF), he is their second-highest graded cornerback, trailing only the Dolphins’ Xavien Howard. Callahan has the third-lowest yards allowed per coverage snap and has the second-lowest passer rating allowed when targeted. Unfortunately for the Broncos, Callahan just suffered another foot injury and was placed onto the injured reserve on Wednesday.

The next Broncos cornerback by snap count is the rookie third-round pick out of Iowa, Michael Ojemudia. Things haven’t gone quite as well for him, as he has allowed 458 yards and three touchdowns per PFF, while not recording an interception. He has had some bright games, like against the Patriots where he got an 88.6 PFF grade, but in his first game against the Chiefs, he had a tough one, receiving a 39.5 grade, though the box score wasn’t that much of an eyesore. With Callahan out, Ojemudia will have to step up and he’ll see at least some of Hill in this one.

Key to the Game: Can Patrick Mahomes continue his dominant performances?

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