With this weeks news that the New York Giants have decided to bench long time quarterback Eli Manning in favor of rookie Daniel Jones, there has been much debate on whether Manning has had a good, and even Hall of Fame worthy career. There are 26 “Modern ERA Quarterbacks” currently in the Hall of Fame, a relatively low number, so being inducted as a QB is a huge deal. Is Eli Manning worthy of this honor? I decided to look into the matter for myself.

The Good

This section starts with the fact that Eli has led the Giants to two Super Bowl wins against the New England Patriots, Super Bowl XLII and Super Bowl XLVI. Eli made some huge throws to win both of those games and that should not be taken away from him.

Manning has started all but one game over the past 14 seasons (with the one missed game being a benching), which is a feat all in itself, especially with the amount that Eli gets hit. He has been sacked 408 times in his career and he has never missed a game due to injury.

Over the course of his career he has finished the regular season in the top ten in passing yards seven times and the top ten in passing touchdowns ten times.

Eli has done some good things in his NFL career.

The Bad

This is where things get dicey.

Eli Manning throws a lot of interceptions. He has led the NFL in interceptions three times, throwing more the 20 INT’s in each of those seasons. He has been in the top ten in this category 12 times in his career and currently leads all active players in interceptions thrown. Now before we put the nail in Eli’s Hall of Fame credential coffin, I should note that 13 players have thrown more interceptions in their career and 8 of them are in the NFL Hall of Fame (with a ninth being Peyton Manning who will no doubt be in when he becomes eligible). I should also then note that of those 13 only three have played in the 21st century.

The interceptions are definitely a draw back, but we can chalk the high total up to longevity and durability.

But what about his interception rate? Interception rate is a pretty simple stat to calculate: interceptions divided by passes thrown. Eli’s INT rate is 3%. QBs that started playing in 2004 or later that have a worse rate, and have enough pass attempts to qualify for the leaderboard, are Jay Cutler, Matt Cassel, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Derek Anderson, Chad Henne, Mark Sanchez, and Jameis Winston. I think you would have an incredibly hard time making a case for any of these guys to be in any type of Hall of Fame discussions.

Now, I don’t want to make it seem like I am cherry picking stats to down Eli, because I couldn’t care less if he made the Hall or not, but I am just trying to present some facts on both sides.

The next thing that I think hurts Eli Manning’s chances are the era in which he played. The NFL is a quarterback driven league and the current set of rules favors the offense. Why does this hurt Eli? Because there are a lot of good quarterbacks playing now, and when Eli was drafted in 2004. At any given time in his career, you would have a tough time arguing that Eli Manning was in the top five or even top ten echelon of quarterbacks in the NFL. With only 26 quarterbacks in the Hall of Fame, it is an extremely elite group and I don’t know that Manning is ELIte (yeah, yeah I know, I’m not clever.)

The Hall Analysis

Is Eli better than any of the 26 QB’s currently in the Hall of Fame. I think so. He won a couple of Super Bowls when others could not. He has better numbers than some. Overall, however, I think the ones that I am saying he is better than played pre-1980. I don’t think Eli is on the level of the QB’s inducted that played in the past 30 years.

Again, I think the biggest thing that keeps him out is his competition. Among those that will get in ahead of Eli are likely Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, and Aaron Rodgers. I’d say these guys are the locks to get in. There are many such as Philip Rivers, Matt Ryan, and maybe even a guy like Tony Romo, that have better efficiency numbers and less “bad” seasons but no post-season success like Eli.

Will He Get In?

I would not put him in, but I don’t (yet) have a vote.

Will he actually get in? Probably, eventually. Archie Manning pulls enough strings to get what he wants and the two Super Bowls were among the most memorable of our time. 

I just personally Eli has been “bad” longer than he has been “good”, which is not a Hall of Famer in my book.

 

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