2013 MLB Home Run Predictions
by Jacob Parish | Posted on Friday, November 30th, 2012
There was somewhere around 5000 total home runs hit in the 2012 MLB season. This is an astonishing total, as 2012 seemed to be a power hitter’s year.
Among the leaders of last year were AL leader Miguel Cabrera of the Tigers, with 44 home runs. And NL leader Ryan Braun of the Brewers, with 41 home runs. Other notable names with over 40 home runs were Curtis Granderson, Josh Hamilton, Edwin Encarnacion, and Adam Dunn. These were career years for most of these stars, however, in the coming season, some of them may drop down to their normal selves, while others may just be hitting their peak.Here are the predictions for those six names that I highlighted above:
• Adam Dunn – Adam Dunn has had a very successful career in the eyes of most MLB players, playing 12 years so far and still managing to start an enormous numberof games per year for his age. Last year, with the White Sox, he hit the second-most home runs in his career, despite his pitiful .204 batting average and 222 strikeouts. This surprised nearly the entire league, as he had not hit 40 home runs since his streak of five straight years with this mark ending in 2008.Next year, Dunn will not have a spectacular year again, as his totals will decrease once again. I am predicting a huge downfall for Dunn, his total dropping to just over half of what it was this year; he will only hit somewhere in between 20-25 in 2013.
• Ryan Braun – Ryan Braun led the National League in home runs last year with 41, despite the allegations against him regarding steroid use. Braun hit a whopping 33 home runs the year before, also, winning the MVP award that year. If this pace continues, from 25 in 2010 to 32 in 2011 to 41 in 2012, Braun may have a career year in 2013. His total has increased by eight each of the last two years. If this trend continues, which I believe it will almost, he will hit 49 home runs this year. I do find this possible. In this coming year, Ryan Braun will hit somewhere from 45-50 home runs, breaking his career record.
• Edwin Encarnacion – Edwin Encarnacion has been mentioned multiple times in the same sentence as steroids, for this year he hit 42 home runs with the Blue Jays. In the previous years of his career, he had only hit 26 at most, nearly doubling his total. I do not blame the people who saw this drastic change and suspected Human Growth Hormone. He helped lead the Blue Jays to the majority of their wins this year. In 2013, Encarnacion will cool off, not hitting another 40. He will hit a few more than Dunn; I predict he will hit anywhere from 25-30 home runs next year.
• Josh Hamilton – Josh Hamilton has had an odd life, to say the least. From being a recovering drug addict and alcoholic to “killing” a fan in the stands, Hamilton has definitely had his ups and downs. In 2012, he broke his career home run record with 43 home runs, his previous high being 32 in two different years. Hamilton, with the Rangers this season, came in a tie for second place in the league in home runs. If he did not have his injury at the beginning of the season, he probably would have defeated Miguel Cabrera in the race, ruining the Triple Crown. Unfortunately (or fortunately, however you view it), he did not. In 2013, as Hamilton is clearly turning into a power hitter, he will once again hit a large total, just not as large as last year. I am predicting a total of 35-40 this year.
• Curtis Granderson – Ever since Curtis Granderson left the Tigers for the Yankees, he has not been the same hitter; he used to be a clutch, contact hitter, but now he is a typical power hitter; strikeout or home run. In the past two years, Granderson has hit 41 and 43, his two highest of his career. This is the new Curtis. Undoubtedly, his pace will keep up this year. Once again, he will help lead the Yankees to a playoff spot, with another crazy home run number. In 2013, Granderson will lead the American League with 43-48 home runs.
• Miguel Cabrera – Miguel Cabrera won the first Triple Crown in decades in 2012, leading the American League in home runs, batting average, and Runs Batted In. He hit a crazy 44 home runs, leading the Major League, breaking his career high of 38 in 2010. Since coming to the Tigers, Cabrera has been all clutch, with the power, too. Mostly because of the fact that Cabrera will most likely not play as well as last year (it is almost impossible to do that well again), Cabrera will not break the 44 home runs this year; he will hit somewhere from 35-40 home runs.
This 2013 MLB season will definitely be an exciting one to watch, filled with just as much, if not more, of the best part of the game to most fans, home runs. Fans, be prepared for a great year to come!
Image from CBSSports.com